The Saudi-Iranian War Read online

  Ali and the Crown Prince were the only ones at the table who were both princes, and had trained at the United States Armor School. The Crown Prince had gone in 2010 just after the Armor School moved to Fort Benning, while Ali had gone almost a decade later. It still gave them a connection that Ali knew everyone else at the table envied, particularly Prince Khaled bin Fahd.

  Khaled had gone to No. 1 Flying Training School in the UK, which claimed to be the oldest continuously operating military pilot school in the world, and was there for its 100th-anniversary celebration in 2019. He had gone to become a Eurofighter Typhoon pilot, which Ali had thought an odd choice considering that the RSAF also flew the F-15. Until Ali read an article quoting US Air Force Chief of Staff General John Jumper, the only pilot who had flown both the Typhoon and the F-22 Raptor, praising the Typhoon as "absolutely top notch."

  Ali had learned several American idioms while he was at Fort Benning.

  The one that applied here, he thought, was "Even a stopped clock is right twice a day."

  The Crown Prince put down the folder he had been reading from and looked around the table, which everyone knew was the signal that the meeting was going to start. He spoke into the sudden silence.

  "You have all seen the casualty reports from the missile that detonated here yesterday."

  They all nodded. Over a hundred had died and many more had been wounded after the hit collapsed an apartment building, though exact numbers would take days to establish. Rescue crews were still finding survivors, though they were finding far more bodies. Nearly all of its residents were Saudis, which had led to surprise in the Western press, where they seemed to think all Saudis lived in palaces.

  That had never been true, even in the 1970s when Saudi per capita income at about 40,000 US dollars had been one of the world's highest. Now that number had been cut in half, thanks to a population that had tripled over the past thirty years. So now, Saudi per capita income of about 20,000 dollars a year was a third of the 60,000 dollar a year level in the US.

  Plenty of Saudis lived in apartments.

  "His Majesty has instructed me that no more missiles may strike the Kingdom. We are here to decide how best to accomplish this. Ali, you have spoken before about changes to our strategy in Yemen."

  All heads swiveled towards Ali, who nodded.

  "Yes, Minister. I've proposed before that we move more of our M1A2

  Abrams tanks to Yemen. I think we should increase the number deployed there to four hundred. I also recommend that we distribute our forces at the platoon level, which will let us respond to any reported missile launch site far more quickly."

  Ali paused. "I will defer to my colleague from the Air Force regarding air deployments."

  The Crown Prince smiled. “Not so fast, Ali. I called this meeting for options. Let's hear yours, all of it. Khaled will get his say."

  Ali nodded dutifully. “Very well. I believe missile launch sites should have an absolute air targeting priority. We will, of course, still move Abrams platoons on any reported site. However, in many cases, an air strike could get there first."

  The Crown Prince smiled. “I would recommend close communication, to ensure you don't arrive at the same time."

  Everyone laughed at the image, though internally Ali winced. So far he hadn't been impressed by the aim of Khaled's pilots, and wouldn't be surprised by a battlefield accident — even a little.

  The Crown Prince turned his head. "Khaled, what do you think?"

  Khaled's expression was impassive, though Ali knew that internally he had to be seething at a tanker making deployment suggestions for his precious planes. This time, though, he was surprised.

  "I agree with Ali. After the casualties caused by this attack, missile launch sites must take targeting priority over troop concentrations."

  Khaled then turned towards Ali, who was still absorbing this first-ever agreement from his rival.

  "I am not a tanker, but if four hundred M1A2s are deployed to Yemen, how many will be left to defend the Kingdom?", Khaled asked.

  And there it is, Ali thought bitterly, even as he answered. "We will still have two hundred Abrams in the Kingdom, as well as several hundred M60s."

  The Crown Prince's eyebrows rose, and he said dryly, "Let's not forget the AMX-30s."

  Ali winced internally again, though he was still successful in keeping his expression impassive. They had bought the AMX-30s from France decades ago, and though they were carried on the books as "reserve" tanks, Ali knew as well as the Crown Prince did they'd never be taken out of storage again.

  "As you know, the M60s are still in active service and are a match for the armor fielded by the enemies on or near our borders, except for the Israelis. I have seen nothing from our colleagues in the GIP suggesting that either the Israelis or anyone else is planning to attack us. Besides, we'll have nearly the entire force in Saada province, just over the border from the Kingdom. That's not going to change, because their missiles barely have the range to make it to Riyadh. If we need to, we can get back in a hurry using the rail line we just built to Jaizan."

  What Ali had just said had been… mostly true. The General Intelligence Presidency (GIP), the Saudi equivalent of the American CIA, had not warned of anyone besides the Houthis even potentially planning to attack. The M60s were a match for the T-72s that constituted the bulk of the Syrian Army's armor, and one of the few realistic scenarios of a land attack against Saudi

  Arabia was one or more of the T-72s captured by Syrian rebels being used in a raid. And that scenario required them to pass through Iraq, since no part of Syria bordered the Kingdom.

  What was left of the Syrian rebel forces now, though, would never use its few remaining tanks on such a pointless suicide mission.

  Most of the countries that bordered the Kingdom were either allies like the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman, or dependent on Saudi financial and military aid like Jordan and Bahrain.

  They were addressing Yemen. That left Iraq. Since the Americans ended Saddam Hussein's regime Iraq had been far too occupied with its own survival to threaten anyone, up until very recently. Even now, there were regular bombings in Baghdad markets, and though ISIS no longer had a Caliphate it still had followers. The last election there had put in a government that seemed friendlier to Iran, but it still seemed quite a stretch to call it an Iranian ally. Anyway, the GIP didn't see Iraq as a threat.

  Of course, the GIP had also failed to predict Iraq's annexation of Kuwait.

  Ali pushed that thought firmly out of his head.

  The Crown Prince nodded, and then asked in a neutral tone, "You have seen the reports that the last deliveries of Leopard 2A7s have been made to Qatar, replacing their AMX-30s. Do you think our M60s are a match for the Leopards?"

  Ali shrugged. “Tank for tank, no. But even after the latest delivery, they only have a total of two hundred Leopards. They have to know that if they attacked us we could end their tiny country and make it a Saudi province.

  Since Qatar kicked out the Americans last year, they no longer have a protector, unless you count Iran on the other side of the Gulf. I just don’t see them as a threat."

  The Crown Prince nodded again. "GIP agrees with you. I'm still not happy to see the Qataris arming themselves with a tank that has a better main gun than our M1A2s."

  Ali shrugged agreement, but said nothing. It was true that Rheinmetall, the German company that had manufactured the main gun used on both the original Leopards and every M1 model, had developed the improved 120mm smoothbore cannon fitted in the Leopard 2A6 and later models. The key improvement was that the L/55 cannon added fifteen hundred meters to the range of the original L/44 cannon mounted on his M1A2s. As a bonus, the L/55 increased the velocity of armor piercing ammo to 1,800 m/s.

  This would be bad news for any of his M1A2s facing a Leopard 2A7. It would be worse news for any of his M60s.

  The Crown Prince continued, "Qatar said they asked the Americans to vacate their Central Command headqua
rters in their country because they had sided with us when we reimposed the blockade. That made sense, and I never questioned the GIP's reports on the matter. I wonder now, though, whether they did it to have the freedom to break out of our blockade."

  Before Ali could even think of a way to politely reply that the idea was ridiculous, the Crown Prince beat him to it.

  "No, Ali, you're right. The Qataris don't have the nerve to risk their independence by attacking us, and the Iraqis are busy with their own problems. We will proceed with your proposed deployment to Yemen."

  The Crown Prince paused. "But I want to inspect those M60s personally.

  They need to be in fighting shape and ready for deployment to our northern and eastern borders before your extra Abrams move to Yemen. And all the M1A2s that aren’t already blockading Qatar or going to Yemen will stay right here in the capital region."

  Ali simply nodded and said, “Yes, Minister." It was easy to agree since his fellow tanker, as he privately thought of the Crown Prince, was telling him to do what he had planned to do already.

  "And Ali," the Crown Prince continued, "make sure you stay put in Saada province, and don’t push further south. If there is any trouble, I want to be sure your M1A2s can get back in a hurry."

  Ali nodded, privately thinking to himself that the Crown Prince was starting to show his age. He was worrying like an old woman.

  It would not be long before Ali looked back at this moment, and remembered that with age also came wisdom.

  Chapter Two

  Ash Sha'fah, Syria

  Colonel Hamid Mazdaki sat on his pack in the shade of his Zulfiqar-3 tank, ate his meal, and looked at the Euphrates flow by. Smoke was still rising from some of the buildings the tanks of his regiment had just leveled, and he knew that one of those thrice-cursed rebel snipers could be taking aim at him as he chewed.

  He was too tired to care.

  This was supposed to be their last mission before they passed out of Syria and crossed through Iraq on their way to home in Iran. Most soldiers were especially cautious when reaching the end of a deployment, and normally Hamid would have been no exception.

  The difference this time was that their most important mission was still ahead. And it was one Hamid did not expect to survive. He was willing to undertake it because he would finally achieve his lifelong dream of avenging his father’s death at the hands of Saudi soldiers during the 1987 “Mecca Incident” which killed over four hundred people, most of them Iranian pilgrims like his father. Hamid had been just an infant at the time.

  Hamid’s mother had been crushed by his father's death, and sought to go on the pilgrimage herself to honor his memory. After being told she would be able to go the year after his death, her Saudi permit was revoked when the number of pilgrims allowed from Iran was reduced from 150,000 to 45,000.

  Iran boycotted the pilgrimage for the next three years, during which his mother wasted away, and finally died. Hamid was raised by an aunt and uncle who treated him… harshly.

  After Hamid enlisted, he repeatedly tried to go on the pilgrimage himself, but every year either duty intervened or he was not lucky enough to get one of the limited spaces the Saudis doled out by nationality. Then after the 2015 stampede in Mecca where 2,400 pilgrims died, over 400 of them Iranians, pilgrims from Iran were again no longer welcome. Of course, both the Saudis and Iranians blamed each other.

  Then, many Iranians started calling for a boycott of the pilgrimage, because the Saudis were using profits from it to fund their war against the Shi’a in Yemen.

  As far as Hamid was concerned it was clear who was responsible for everything he, his family and his countrymen had suffered when trying to perform the pilgrimage to Mecca. The Saudis.

  The mission that would give Hamid the vengeance he had craved for so many years was also one that almost nobody in Iran knew about. Not so long ago, that would have been impossible.

  In 2008 a drastic reorganization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or Pasdaran, had created thirty-one autonomous provincial corps.

  This new decentralized structure gave corps commanders substantial leeway, from the equipment they requisitioned to selection of regimental commanders, and even the missions they requested.

  In the case of Hamid’s provincial corps the equipment was tank-heavy, the regimental commanders were loyal solely to the general in command of the corps, and they volunteered for duty in Syria at every opportunity. The tanks were a mix of Zulfiqar-3 and recently purchased Russian T-90s, and a single very new Russian T-14 Armata.

  The Zulfiqar-3 was the latest in a series of tanks designed and built in Iran, a necessity forced upon it by years of international sanctions. However, it was a challenge many Iranians welcomed, since sanctions or no it was important not to depend on foreigners for the defense of the revolution. It was primarily based on the American M60 and Russian T-72 tanks, but Hamid thought its fully stabilized 125mm smoothbore cannon, composite armor, autoloader and improved fire control system gave it an edge over both tanks.

  Hamid would admit, though, that he didn't particularly look forward to facing a Saudi Abrams tank in his Zulfiqar-3.

  Hamid had talked to an Iraqi tank commander who told him that though they had bought T-90s as a reaction to American annoyance at several M1A2 tanks ending up in the hands of Shiite militia forces, the T-90s actually had some pluses. First, at 2.5 million US dollars the T-90 cost less than half as much as an Abrams tank. It had better gas mileage, and was a target about thirty percent smaller than the M1A2. Its internal filters required cleaning much less often. Also, unlike the M1A2 version sold to the Iraqis the T-90 came equipped with reactive armor, giving it a much better chance of survival against rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank rockets, even the TOW-2.

  Iran had produced dozens of the new Karrar tank, which was intended to match the T-90’s performance. However, problems with both the Karrar's engine and its reactive armor made Hamid pleased his corps had decided to buy T-90s instead.

  The single T-14 Armata was supposed to be an opportunity for Iran to decide whether it wanted to buy more of them, rather than the far cheaper T-90s. Hamid knew there was no chance Iran would spend the money required, and didn’t even believe they were really necessary.

  Hamid also strongly suspected the Russians’ real purpose for making the Armata available to Iranian forces in Syria was to gain information on the tank’s combat performance without risking Russian troops, or the tank’s reputation. Russia had already sold T-14s to India and Egypt, and clearly saw it as an export cash cow. Anything that went wrong with the T-14’s performance in the hands of Iranian soldiers could be blamed on their incompetence, while any successes would be credited to Russian engineering.

  Hamid shrugged. The truth was that if they didn’t cost more than twice as much as a T-90, he would have wanted the T-14 instead. It had automated defenses against incoming rounds that had proved effective against both rocket-propelled grenades and anti-tank missiles. It wasn’t clear how well those defenses would do against tank shells, but fortunately the rebels had very few of those.

  The Armata could fire a wide range of ammunition, though here the rebels’ lack of tanks had made using many of the rounds pointless. The anti-tank guided missile called the Sprinter had been developed specifically to take advantage of the greater energy of the T-14’s 125mm smoothbore main gun, and had an effective range of up to twelve kilometers. The Vacuum-1 armor-piercing fin-stabilized discarding sabot round had a penetrator that could punch through nearly a full meter of rolled homogeneous armor (RHA) equivalent, meaning no tank’s armor should be able to defeat it. Using either on anything but a tank, though, was like using a sledgehammer to kill a fly — a very expensive sledgehammer.

  Hamid was looking forward to explaining their mission to his troops, because it guaranteed them the chance to finally use the Armata’s impressive capabilities, as well as giving all of them a chance at a place in Paradise. He was also realistic enough to think
it was likely most of them would be going there directly.

  Cairo, Egypt

  As a city, both Abdul Rasool and Farhad Mokri agreed the best adjective to describe Cairo was "overflowing." Its cafes, restaurants, streets and public squares were always packed with people. The largest city in the Middle East with a population of over nine million, the Cairo hotel room they were sitting in provided one of the few possibilities for a truly private meeting. Once they had swept the room for listening devices, of course.

  Abdul looked thoughtful. “I don’t think striking Saudi oil production will be enough to guarantee the overthrow of the regime."

  Farhad shrugged. “Well, I wasn't entirely convinced the last time, but didn't want to discourage you. I still think it would be an excellent start."

  Abdul nodded. “I have an idea for an additional step, but for maximum impact it will need to happen at exactly the same time as the strike on petroleum production."

  Farhad laughed. “Well, we wouldn't want to make this too easy, would we?

  So, the second step?"

  "Strike at Saudi water production," Abdul said confidently.

  Farhad frowned. “Is that really practical? I've read that the Saudis are getting most of their water from desalination plants, and that they have over two dozen."

  Abdul smiled. “Actually, they have twenty-seven. But that's a misleading number. Twenty-one plants are on the Red Sea coast, and most of their production goes to Jeddah, Mecca and Medina. There are six plants along the Persian Gulf coast, and most of the production from four of them goes to Dhahran and Dammam. Two plants, Jubail II and Ras al Khair, produce nearly two-thirds of all the desalinated water in Saudi Arabia. Nearly all of it is piped straight to Riyadh."

  Farhad stared at Abdul in shock. “Almost two-thirds of their entire water production?"

  Abdul's smile grew even broader. "About two million cubic meters per day. Jubail II was the largest desalination plant in the world when it opened in 2009, and Ras al Khair took over that title when it opened in 2014. And many of the groundwater wells that provide the only other available water have run dry. It’s true that eventually enough water to keep people drinking would make it to Riyadh, even if they have to truck it in from other plants.